Resisting the Normalcy Bias Trap

The small town of Butler, Pennsylvania, is just 20 miles from my home, so when former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a campaign rally there my son Joe decided to attend. Today we all know what happened while Trump was at the podium in Butler, and for 15 agonizing minutes after the assassination attempt, with area cell towers shut down, we heard nothing from our son. Those were anxious moments, to say the least.

Days later I watched the Republican National Convention with considerable interest. The common theme throughout was President Trump’s tag line: “Make America Great Again”. For sure, it’s hard to argue with the sentiment about safer streets, more secure borders, better economic development, and so on. But the notion of the U.S. returning to a 1950’s “Mayberry” society, with stay-at-home Moms baking pies and Dads heading off to good blue collar mining and manufacturing jobs, is a longing for a normalcy that probably only ever existed on television. 

Speaker after speaker at the convention talked about how bad things have gotten, pointing to illegal immigration, crime, inflation, debt, education, corruption, homelessness, infrastructure and national defense. The list was never ending. Yet many of the same speakers said the U.S. remained the greatest country in the world.

This brought to mind the early years of the Nazi regime, when a decent number of Jews, socialists and anti-government activists left Germany to emigrate abroad. Sadly, they were in the minority. The vast majority of people in those groups stayed behind despite the rhetoric as well as the stated platform of the National Socialists. 

In hindsight, everyone would have left. So, why did so many remain as deportations began to concentration camps? The answer is “normalcy bias” or “normality bias,” or the tendency for people to believe things will continue to function as they have been. As a result, they underestimate the likelihood of more problematic scenarios.

What is Normalcy Bias?

Normalcy bias is a cognitive distortion that leads people to underestimate the possibility of a disaster or crisis, assuming things will always function the way they normally do. This psychological bias causes individuals to ignore warning signs and delay taking action during emergencies, because they believe everything will return to normal. Common in natural disasters, economic collapses, and even personal health crises, normalcy bias can prevent timely decisions that could save lives or reduce harm. Understanding normalcy bias is crucial for risk awareness, preparedness, and making rational decisions in unpredictable situations.

How does the Normalcy Bias impact us?

This leads to situations in which people fail to adequately prepare for crises, including natural disasters, political upheaval, crippling debt, conflict, or other social and economic breakdowns. Scientists say roughly seven out of 10 people display strong normalcy bias during any type of disaster. The wise approach is to be in the thirty percent who resist normalcy bias and prepare for a well-informed “Plan B”.

I travel all over the world for business and leisure. Nobody loves this country more than I do, but it’s actually hard to find an area where the U.S. really still is the greatest. Are we the richest country per capita? No, even excluding micro-states like Liechtenstein and San Marino, the U.S. now ranks seventh in per capita income.

What about basic education including mathematics, literacy and science? U.S. schoolchildren rank 18th globally.

An American’s average life expectancy, at 79, ranks 47th, six years less than that of a citizen of number one Singapore.

The United States ranks in the bottom third in terms of safety, with numerous Third World countries in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia scoring better.

The World Freedom Index puts the U.S. 17th in terms of freedoms, which is fine but far from the best. Switzerland is number one on that front.

As for The Economist’s list of the world’s most livable cities, Vienna is number one for the third year in a row. No U.S. city cracked the top ten, which are all European.

I searched extensively for any area where the U.S. still ranks first. In absolute military spending, the U.S. leads the world. But we’re second in per capita defense spending after Israel. The U.S. also ranks first, and by a large margin, in gun ownership at 120 per 100 people. These are hardly two areas that qualify us to hold the title of world’s greatest country. 

Countries like Singapore, the UAE, Switzerland, Austria, and even Costa Rica outrank the U.S. on nearly every type of measurement. Objectively, the U.S. is simply no longer the greatest country in the world. 

It’s our home and we may love it, but that doesn’t make it the greatest. In fact, it’s clear that we live in a highly divided country, where half the population is sure to be unhappy about the people holding power in Washington.

So, what should one do in this situation? Engaging the political process at the national, state and local levels is not a bad idea. To the extent that your voice is heard, and your voice translates into improving the country around you at any level, it is what is needed. I wish you every success in your journey.

But what if that’s not enough? What if the country continues in the opposite direction with all those problems mentioned at the Republican Convention continuing to deteriorate? How long will you wait to take action for yourself and your family?

In 1930s Germany, you would’ve needed to physically pack up your belongings and take a train or steamship out of  the country to escape the encroaching Nazi regime. Most didn’t and many paid for that mistake with their lives.

Today, it’s much simpler. We live in an electronic age in which we can establish foreign residency or obtain second citizenship without even leaving our home country. Many residency and citizenship programs around the world are designed to attract investment into their country, promising residency or citizenship as an added benefit. 

For those on a budget, many retiree programs, especially in Central and South America, grant residency without any investment requirements. For those with recent ties to a foreign country (usually parents or grandparents), it’s possible to reinstate citizenship based on your ancestry. These programs are very common across Europe.

You might think of residency and second citizenship as akin to fire insurance. You don’t buy fire insurance because you want, or even expect, your house to burn down. On the contrary, we do everything possible to make sure our house does not burn down. At the same time, we pay for insurance in case it someday does.

Many people obtain permanent residency or citizenship in another country without immediately relocating. Some eventually move, while others only visit their new country on an intermittent basis. Still others simply put their documents in a safety deposit box and hope and pray they never need to use them. It’s all about having options, which is why it’s often called a “Plan B.”

The Covid-19 pandemic reminded us that international travel is not a right, but a privilege that can easily be suspended. But it does become a right once you gain the legal power to enter that country anytime you want and stay for as long as you want. 

This requires a residency card or a passport for that country. During Covid, I flew back and forth between the U.S. and Europe a dozen times. On many of those flights, I was on a giant aircraft with fewer passengers than crew because the U.S. had placed severe restrictions on international travel. With my additional citizenship, I was among the lucky few able to continue to travel abroad freely, and I don’t take that for granted.

Whether a singular event or a harbinger of things to come, the global response to Covid-19 highlighted how important it is to have a strong Plan B in place BEFORE things fall apart. The time to buy fire insurance is not while your home is burning, but long before. We live in turbulent times, and nobody can predict what might come next. I hope we do “Make America Great Again” but trends suggest we may well fall short, and to believe otherwise is a clear case of normalcy bias.

About the Author

Joel Nagel is an international asset protection and corporate lawyer who heads SOFOS Partners, a unique shared family office (SFO) with global interests in banking, insurance, sports, media, real estate development, hospitality, and timber. Limited spaces are available in his SFO for qualified individuals and existing domestic family offices seeking to diversify their holdings internationally with bespoke offshore solutions.

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