With the 2024 U.S. presidential vote less than a week away, former president Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris are making desperate, 11th-hour appeals to undecided voters in key battleground states across the country.
But the nearly 6 million American voters living abroad are perhaps just as important. As we reported last month, because the election is projected to be so close, expats are likely to have considerably more sway in this vote than in years past.
Read more like this: Next U.S. President in the Hands of Expats
As the candidates make their final push, I’ve examined their positions on issues that most directly impact American expats, including taxation, foreign policy, and immigration.
Taxation and Financial Impact
As he’s done in the past, Donald Trump has advocated for further tax cuts—especially for businesses—in an attempt to urge companies to bring jobs back to the U.S.
One of his key policies during his first term was the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which impacted American expats by including a one-time transition tax on foreign profits for American shareholders of foreign corporations.
While this bill primarily affected business owners, the complexity of the tax reporting proved an additional burden for many U.S. citizens abroad. If re-elected, Trump’s tax policies are expected to benefit wealthy expats or entrepreneurs who are able to navigate tax regulations effectively.
Meanwhile, his policies may burden middle-class expats who struggle with complex tax filings and reporting obligations, such as the Foreign Bank Account Report (FBAR).
Kamala Harris has expressed a desire to reverse Trump’s tax cuts, particularly those targeting wealthier individuals. Additionally, Harris’s economic platform includes proposals for higher taxes on the wealthy and increased scrutiny on foreign earnings.
This could increase the tax burden on higher-income American expats, although it is not yet clear how her administration would address the complicated issues surrounding expat taxation like the double taxation challenges faced by many (and which Trump has vowed to end for all expats).
Harris has supported legislation that aims to simplify tax filings for expats, potentially reducing the burden for those not among the highest earners.
Immigration and Residency Concerns
Immigration has become one of Trump’s key issues. Under his administration, immigration restrictions were stringent, not just for incoming immigrants but also for American citizens attempting to navigate the immigration system for non-American family members.
His administration’s “America First” approach often meant prioritizing domestic citizens, which created additional challenges for expats living with or marrying non-U.S. citizens. If re-elected, Trump’s strict stance on immigration could continue, potentially complicating the process for expats who need to sponsor visas or green cards for foreign family members.
In contrast, Harris’s immigration policies are more focused on providing pathways to citizenship and reforming the system to make it simpler and more accessible. While she has taken a tough stance on border security, her administration would likely be more favorable to expats with foreign family members, offering more opportunities for family reunification.
Harris has also indicated support for simplifying immigration processes, which could benefit expats who frequently travel or have residency in other countries. However, Harris’s policies may still maintain strict security measures, given the pressures on border management that both parties have acknowledged as essential to national security.
Voting Rights and Representation
With around 6 million U.S. citizens living overseas, the expat community is increasingly seen as a critical voting bloc.
Given the importance of absentee ballots, particularly in tight elections, Harris has including making it easier for expats to vote absentee. She has also indicated that she will introduce reforms aimed at making it more seamless for expats to register and vote absentee, especially in battleground states.
Trump’s first administration, on the other hand, made efforts to tighten voting regulations, which some argue created barriers for expats to vote.
Foreign Policy and Security for Expats
When it comes to foreign policy, Trump’s “America First” doctrine could potentially isolate the U.S. on the global stage, making life more complicated for American expats.
His focus on renegotiating trade deals and criticism of multinational institutions may affect international cooperation for US businesses abroad, which could indirectly impact expats. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, expats might face greater challenges in regions facing instability or where the U.S. takes a harder stance.
Harris, conversely, has advocated for a more cooperative and multilateral approach to foreign policy, which could strengthen diplomatic ties with countries that host large expat communities.
Under her leadership, American embassies and consulates might prioritize services for expats, improving access to resources such as consular services, legal support, and emergency assistance. Harris’s emphasis on international alliances could also provide a safer and more predictable environment for U.S. citizens abroad, particularly in regions affected by conflict or political instability.
Healthcare and Social Services
Trump’s healthcare policies during his presidency were focused on dismantling the Affordable Care Act (or Obama Care as it’s commonly known), which left some American expats without reliable healthcare coverage options, especially those who depended on insurance that extends abroad.
Harris, on the other hand, has been a staunch supporter of expanding healthcare coverage. While her healthcare policies are more domestically focused, a Harris presidency probably would offer more social services and international agreements that ensure expats can access healthcare abroad through government-sponsored plans or international treaties.
The Verdict
These candidates’ stated policies present two distinct futures for American expats. Trump’s potential re-election may continue the regulatory and tax challenges experienced during his first term, with stricter immigration and potentially reduced voting access for those abroad.
In contrast, Harris’s approach might ease some of the burden on expats, particularly in areas like taxation, immigration for foreign family members, and voting access, although her tax reforms could raise concerns for wealthier expats.
Whoever wins, the next US president is sure to face challenges enacting their platform., But make no mistake, the next president will profoundly shape life for Americans living overseas.
Whichever side of the aisle you lean towards, we urge you to take a minute to click this link and register to vote.
