T.S. Eliot,
American by birth, English by choice, was once asked why he had moved to
London, instead of settling down in St. Louis with a nice woman from the
midwest.
"I didn't
like being dead that much," was his reply.
Eliot shared
one of American intellectuals' most unflattering prejudices -- a contempt
for things American. Just sit in the cafes on the Left Bank in Paris today.
Make sure you are in the company of American intellectuals... and mention
McDonalds. Or Monica Lewinsky. Or Guiliani, and the Brooklyn Museum of
Art.
Whether they
come from San Diego or Portland... no matter what other goofy ideas they
may have... you are almost guaranteed to find they despise the views of
the common American and the things for which America is best known.
I visit this
subject because almost everyone expects the next century to be dominated
by America... by its culture, its businesses, and its stock market. Nearly
every editorial page makes some reference to "American Triumphalism."
Nearly every editorial writer is appalled by McDonalds... and contemptuous
of the great hoi polloi of middle-class America... but proud to sit with
them on top of the world. My prediction: they will slip from their perch
before the end of this decade. Eliot spent most of his life in London.
His first wife
went mad and had to be institutionalized after their separation. His most
famous poem, The Wasteland, described the hollowness of post-WWI feeling.
God was dead. What was left? Eliot had no interest in politics.
"What shall
I do now? What shall I do?" 'I shall rush out as I am, and walk the
street 'With my hair down, so. What shall we do to-morrow? 'What shall
we ever do?'
Eliot went
back in time. After being lionized for his portrayal of 20th century disillusionment
-- thus foreshadowing Camus by two decades -- he announced that he was
"a classicist in literature, royalist in politics and anglo-catholic
in religion." In short, he had looked into the abyss of nihilism and
existentialism -- and turned around. What the heck... say a mass, hobnob
with aristocrats, read the classics -- life didn't have to be all bad.
Later in life, he actually decided to eat a peach too -- marrying a woman
38 years younger than he.
But he never
went back to St. Louis.
For a long
time it had been the habit of European intellectuals to disparage America...
and for American intellectuals to agree with them. Sydney Smith, in the
mid-Victorian era, asked if anyone would really care to see an American
play or listen to an American tune. I believe it was he who called the
whole nation an "experiment in vulgarity."
Perhaps it
was. Perhaps it still is. But that didn't stop Americans from making money.
Indeed, it seemed to encourage it.
The Figaro
newspaper has been around in Paris for a long time. It reprinted a
copy of its front page from 1900 -- as part of its first edition of the
year 2000. I noted an interesting article about Senator Andrews Clark.
I never heard of him. But the Washington correspondent said he was the
richest man in the senate, richer than the next 8 richest senators put
together. He made his money, the article tells us, starting with nothing
but a team of oxen. He drove them out to a copper mine, the Verde Mine,
where he made his fortune. By the turn of the century, he had banks, railways,
rubber plantations, you name it.
Was he vulgar?
Probably as vulgar as a bus station. But, in New York, he also had a collection
of masterpieces from the "modern french school," which probably
adorn the walls of some public museum today. The Figaro wondered wistfully
whether it might be possible to get "this prodigious businessman"
to Paris, where "our artists and poor would have no reason to object."
While America's
intellectuals fawned over their English and European cousins... America's
dynamic businessmen built McDonalds. And made films that are shipped all
over the world. And marketed music that people now hear (and often cannot
escape) in even the most remote and desolate outposts of humanity.
Joseph Conrad
described this quality of American business in his character, Holroyd,
who says, "we shall run the world's business whether it likes it or
not."
And indeed,
that is what happened in the 20th century.
It turned out
to be an American Century, just as Henry Luce had suggested. But America's
chattering classes have no idea of what brought about America's triumph,
nor what to do with it.
President
Clinton, a man fond of peaches, says "we must never forget the meaning
of the 20th century, or... the triumph of freedom."
It was freedom
that the US had in abundance in 1900 -- and which set people like Senator
Clark and Mr. Holroyd on their paths to commercial glory. Freedom allowed
them to be prosperous and vulgar at the same time. The more prosperous
they were -- the more vulgarity they could afford.
Investors and
politicians still believe America has a competitive edge in the 21st century.
They claim that our economy is free... and more flexible and innovative
that those of other nations. It is largely in view of this that the Rocket
Chips have been bid up to such extreme levels. And American consumers believe
it too. They no longer save. They go into debt and spend like crazy --
all in the belief that the American economy is headed for even greater
glory.
Fortunately,
foreigners believe the hype too. They continue to accept dollars as
the currency of choice, despite the fact that the dollar -- America's most
successful export -- becomes less valuable, intrinsically, with each one
in use. Even Cuba... a country that still clings to politics like the Pope
clings to the cross -- has accepted the dollar as legal tender.
Amid all this
good cheer... could I suggest that America is overbought? You bet I could.
As reported here yesterday, the US economy did less well than the German
economy over the last 10 years. And its competitive advantage, freedom,
has been largely dismantled.
American
Triumphalism, like democracy and the Nasdaq 100, is another example
of a trend whose premise is false. It will discredited sometime in the
next decade.
Sell the dollar.
Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning
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