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Two Dollars - page 2
by Doug Casey
PURCHASING POWER PARITY

There are lots of factors you can consider in judging which direction a currency is likely to go in the future—the balance of trade, balance of payments, monetary policy, government fiscal policy and foreign exchange holdings prominent among them. It used to be, of course, that this was all academic, because not too long ago a currency was just a promise by a bank to pay a certain amount of gold to thebearer on demand. In those days (basically pre-World War I  for most countries, but up until 1933 for the US) a currency’s value was determined strictly by the ability of the issuer to make good on that pledge; but that, as they say, was then.

PPP, however, is perhaps the best determinant of whether a currency is cheap or dear now. In essence, the PPP of a currency is determined by how far a dollar (or whatever unit you prefer) will go in a given place. But, just because a currency is cheap based on PPP doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper.

The NZ$ offers a perfect illustration of this. As a matter of pure coincidence, for at least the last five years, a Kiwi dollar would buy you in New Zealand just about what an American dollar would buy you in America—but the Kiwi dollar traded for considerably less in the world markets. Based on PPP, the NZ$ was cheap a year ago at US$.50. I say that because the same meal, the same cab ride, the same work, cost about half what they did in the US. That wouldn’t be surprising in a Third World country, but NZ has pretty much the same standard of living as the US. With a Kiwi dollar buying as much in NZ as a US dollar did in the US, and American could move (or vacation) there for half what it would cost at home. But now that number is 40%. The place is so cheap I feel like I ought to be wearing a mask when I go into a store there.

Often a low PPP is discounting high domestic inflation, political turmoil, or war.

NZ, however, continues to have very low domestic inflation; the currency is actually quite well-managed by the Reserve Bank, whose executives’ compensation is actually tied to low inflation. Unlike the US, NZ is one of the least likely places in the world to get into some foreign conflict; its “end of the road” isolation and small size conspire keep the boys at home. The fact that it sustained among the very highest per capita casualties in both World Wars, acting as London’s cannon fodder, probably helps in that respect as well. The fault lies in the current government. But it’ll be gone in two years, if not before. And perhaps Kiwis will have learned a lesson that apparently needs to be re-taught everywhere at least once a generation.

Whatever New Zealand’s faults, it’s a country that has a solid common law tradition and takes the rule of law seriously.

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It’s not likely to go off the deep end. And as cheap as commodities have been for so long, it could get a big boost from that direction as well.

Incidentally, when I say the NZ$ has been the worst performing currency in the world, that’s not an exaggeration. The only one that’s done worse is the Zimbabwe dollar ; even the Philippine peso and the Indonesian rupiah lost only 20%. The Euro is down about 26%.

Because of the down-spike in the currency NZ property is off an additional 25% to those with US dollars. Apart from that, the domestic recession is weakening prices in NZ$ terms. This is a superb time to get on a plane and check it out—especially now that winter is coming to the northern hemisphere, and spring to the southern. You get on a plane at 10PM in Los Angeles, and disembark at 6AM the next morning in Auckland after a night’s sleep. 

If you’re not of a mind to check it out personally, NZ government bonds are a good way to play the currency. 

I’d stick with the short maturities, since guessing the direction of interest rates is a different game entirely. The bonds yield a little over 6.5% all across the yield curve, about a 75-100 basis point advantage on their American counterparts. A second alternative is offered by Everbank.com, which is offering deposits in a basket of currencies it’s constructed called the Investor's Currency Opportunity Certificate of  Deposit, made up of the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Mexican peso. The presence of the peso may surprise you, but almost everything is cheap against the dollar. The 3-month CDs currently yield 7.25%; 6 month CDs 7.50%. I suggest the 6 month paper at a minimum, not so much because of the yield advantage, but because trends in currencies tend to be lengthy once they get underway. And, of course, a high yield acts as something of a buffer should the US dollar’s uptrend persist a while longer.
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The Everbank CD has the additional advantage of FDIC insurance, something you won’t get should you buy euro CDs through your broker. Nor are there any additional fees or commissions associated with these CDs. The bank’s profit is built into the foreign currency prices and I believe their rates to be extremely competitive compared to other banks. 

To open your account ($20,000  minimum), request an information kit by contacting the trading desk at 800-926-4922 ext.1, or by e-mail at worldmarkets@everbank.com.

This bank, incidentally, is a charm to deal with in all regards, and I plan to say more about their unique services in the future. It’s not yet publicly traded, but in the interests of full-disclosure, I’m an early investor in it and management are old personal friends of mine. 

One last note on the whole currency question: Gold really is a uniquely good money. There are very few people that believe it will ever again be used in that capacity, but I happen to be one of them. It’s hard to say what the “intrinsic value” of anything is. Indeed, since value is purely subjective, intrinsic value is a bit of a chimera. Still, that said, everything eventually settles at its intrinsic value. And that will absolutely include paper money. I’m betting gold will again be used as money, simply because it’s the most viable medium of exchange and store of value. It’s convenient, consistent, durable, divisible, has value in itself, and can’t be created by fiat. Paper money will go the way of the Soviet Union—it seemed like part of the cosmic firmament, but it was just a giant swindle.

THREE PATHS UP THE MOUNTAIN

A close friend of mine recently went to see his doctor for a completely routine physical and was shocked to find he had prostate cancer which, depending on whether it had spread, could amount to a near-term death sentence. He was put into the hospital a few days later for removal of the offending gland, and we’re all pleased to find it looks like the condition was caught in time, and he’ll be back to work as you read this. But it takes something like that striking nearby to remind you that the bird of death is always circling, the Grim Reaper is always hunting. And absolutely nobody gets away, whether it can be put off a day, or another 50 years. It is, of course, just a question of time. Nobody gets out of here alive. 

This is something that’s necessarily always in the back of a thoughtful person’s mind, but it’s brought to the fore more often as you get older, and more people you know shed this mortal coil. You may start reading obituaries. Some cultures are more concerned with the inevitable than others, and that certainly includes Buddhist countries, especially those with a surfeit of monks, like Bhutan, where I spent a week or so last month.

This leads me to tell you three stories, about three guys I talked to in the course of a week. As far as I’m concerned, their stories relate directly to the problems I just discussed.

RICO

After hiking in Bhutan, I spent a week in northern Thailand, staying with a new friend, Rico Fowler, in a town called Chiang Kam, very near the Laotian border. An old friend of broker Rick Rule, who was with me, Rico has led a wild and interesting life, like many Americans adventurous enough to live outside the US. 

The son of a top American admiral, Fowler was groomed to go to the Naval Academy, but went on a summer vacation, and more or less never came back after one thing lead to another. For the next 20 years he traveled the world, following the surf, supporting himself with the occasional import/export deal. Five years ago he met his wife Corrinne; they pooled their talents and built a clothing business based on knitting cotton sweaters. At this point they employ several thousand women doing piece work out of their homes, making what impresses me as a lot of money, while enjoying an extremely mellow lifestyle. The key to Rico’s success was that he did the things you’re best able to do while you’re young (like surfing most days), while gaining connections, experience and knowledge that would allow him to make a financial killing later in life. Very smart. And very wise. And very out of the ordinary.

PAUL

I’ve mentioned my friend Paul Terhorst before in these letters. Twenty-five years ago he was the youngest partner ever of a major accounting firm, doing all the things successful yuppies do. But instead of continuing to do them in pursuit of a gold watch, he decided to quit, sell absolutely everything and do what he wanted to do for the rest of his life. And that’s just what he and his wife Vicki have done. He recounted some of his adventures in his book Cashing In On The American Dream—How To Retire At 35, (out of print and regrettably, only available in used book stores now) but here’s an update, in the form of an email he sent out last week:

“The sun wakes us at 7:00 a.m.  We make instant coffee in our room, using an immersion heater.  We listen to BBC news on shortwave for an hour, then to VOA for an hour.  Both news programs recap the overnight financial markets in New York. At 9:00 a.m., hair brushed, faces washed, dressed in shorts, T-shirts, and sandals, and spry and jaunty, we're prepared to battle.  First stop is breakfast, either rice porridge at the local market, or noodle soup, banana pancakes, or fruit, with brewed coffee or espresso.  At breakfast we often meet or run into friends, and make last minute preparations for the day's grind.

“Mid-morning activities might include tennis (me), a stop at the library, an hour or two in one of Chiang Mai's internet cafes, or a stroll through a market. We might order new reading glasses, buy a shirt or shorts, check on something at our travel agent, get money at an ATM, or spend quiet time in a temple.  We tend to walk a lot, up to eight miles a day.  We take it easy, though, and enjoy the warm sun, and Chiang Mai's colors and smells.

“By one o'clock our morning frenzy has mercifully ended, and Vicki and I head for lunch at our favorite vegetarian restaurant, well off the tourist circuit. Main dishes cost only US$ .22, and we tend to splurge on the fresh vegetables, tofu curries, noodle soup, soft spring rolls, and brown rice.  The restaurant uses textured tofu, which has something like the texture and taste of meat or chicken, and well as different kinds of mushrooms.

“After lunch we return to the hotel for a much-needed rest, then sit by the pool and read.  Last week I read A History of the Arab Peoples by Albert Hourani; Vicki tends to read the English-language newspapers from Bangkok.  We chat with others at poolside, mainly young people from Canada, England, Germany, or Denmark.  We almost never see Americans.  I figure Americans work more, take shorter vacations and stay closer to home.”  (That’s true. One American family at the Chiang Mai Four Seasons never left the hotel, where they were dropping about $400 a day. They’ll go home and say they’ve been to Thailand.)

“Vicki and I tend to skip the cocktail hour--we're on a health kick--and for dinner eat Italian, Thai, Yunnan Chinese, or Thai vegetarian.  We're in bed by 10:00 p.m., exhausted by the day's wild, frenetic pace.  We toss and turn for up to thirty seconds before falling asleep.”

Paul does this kind of thing all over the world, and has considerably more money, as well as infinitely more time than he did when he was an up-and-comer in California.

BO

My friend Bo Keeley was national racquet ball champion for several years running in the early 70s and wrote several books on the subject. He, too, dropped out and has been living a peripatetic existence since. Hopping freights (an endeavor I’ve joined him in a couple of summers), taking extended trips to exotic places on every continent with no schedule and generally doing exactly what he wants to do, exactly when and how he chooses. His last email to me recounted a three-week hike he took through the Everglades and on the Florida Trail. This wasn’t a once-in-a-lifetime guided tour; it was just a typical month.

Keeley maintains an interest in the financial markets, literature, and about everything else. He just refuses to clutter his life with the impedimenta that keep most people from confronting their own existence. And ultimate fates.

The Answer?

I’m not sure what you can, or might, or should, make of these four vignettes from four people’s lives over the last couple of weeks. I do think, however, it’s more worth thinking about now than ever before, if I’m right about what’s in store for the stock market and the economy. A bear market is an excellent time to pull back and assess things. And make changes in your life, not just your portfolio, while you’re still in charge—not some margin clerk—cosmic or otherwise.

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