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The
Bluest of the REIT Blue-Chips: Now On Sale in Singapore
By Eric
Roseman
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October 2006
| Did
you miss the real estate boom? Do you think it will be years before
you’ll find another decent property deal? Well, if you look beyond
your home town and pricey European real estate, you’ll find a property
market that offers excellent value. I’m talking about Singapore.
For global
investors seeking the best of all worlds, Singapore is probably one of
the most undervalued property markets this decade. A combination
of powerful investment factors, including rising income distributions,
currency appreciation, a thriving real estate market, and a favorable tax
regime all make Singapore one of the best property values in the world
right now.
Supported by
a booming economy, a strong financial services industry and title as the
world’s third largest oil-trading center after New York and London, the
city-state now sells at its lowest stock market multiple in almost four
years. Over the last five years, Singapore has overtaken Hong Kong
as Asia’s fastest growing financial center, including introducing new hedge
fund and mutual fund laws, REITs in 2001, and international private banking.
But the real
story is Singapore’s thriving Real Estate Investment Trust, or REIT industry,
offering fatter dividends than the U.S. and the most liberal tax environment
in the world.
Though Singapore
didn’t escape the Asian economic crisis in 1997-1998, the prosperous city-state
suffered the least. That’s because Singapore has historically harbored
a low external debt ratio compared to her neighbors’ bulging deficits.
And her low external debt ratio has been accompanied by rising trade and
budget surpluses and an undervalued currency.
Singapore’s
economy is primarily driven by shipping, financial services, technology
manufacturing, and tourism. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.5%
in the second quarter after expanding 6.4% in 2005. Inflation is also low
at just 1.1% annualized through May. And the Singapore dollar (S$)
ranks as one of Asia’s best-performing currencies over the last 12 months
(after the South Korean won). It’s up 6.5% versus the U.S. dollar.
From an investor’s
perspective, Singapore is awarded an A-plus. This small but prosperous
nation benefits from its sprawling financial services infrastructure, consumer
electronics manufacturing and lucrative concentration of Chinese foreign
direct investment. And unlike some other advanced economies, Singapore’s
financial health is excellent.
U.S. vs.
Singapore REITs
REITs remain
one of the best-performing investments since the stock market peak in March
2000. REITs typically acquire investment-grade, income-producing properties
like office buildings, business parks, shopping malls, hotels, and serviced
apartments. Gross income, which usually is rental income, is consolidated
at the REIT level and distributed to investors following a 22% corporate
tax rate. Starting in 2007, all Singapore REITs will attempt to pay
out 100% of their after-tax income to unit holders.
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The
Strange Disappearance of 100,000 American Millionaires.
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U.S. vs. Singapore
REITs
REITs remain
one of the best-performing investments since the stock market peak in March
2000. REITs typically acquire investment-grade, income-producing properties
like office buildings, business parks, shopping malls, hotels, and serviced
apartments. Gross income, which usually is rental income, is consolidated
at the REIT level and distributed to investors following a 22% corporate
tax rate. Starting in 2007, all Singapore REITs will attempt to pay
out 100% of their after-tax income to unit holders.
In contrast,
the effective yields for U.S. REITs have plummeted over the last five years
from 10% in 2000 to the current 4.6%. And most of these are expensive
following a bull market. With the rising U.S. interest rates and
a cooling property market, U.S.-based REITs simply don’t offer the best
risk-adjusted values today. But that’s certainly not the case in
Singapore.
In 1999, Singapore
enacted its first investment guidelines for establishing Singapore-based
REITs. The market, still small by international standards, is nevertheless
now larger than Hong Kong’s REIT industry with a combined US$17 billion
in assets. Compared to Hong Kong’s sprawling REIT market, Singapore
REITs are more attractive because 100% of net income is paid to shareholders.
According to domestic REIT laws, all net income must be distributed to
investors in order to facilitate pass-through tax treatment. No other
REIT market in the world currently allows the individual investor to receive
100% of his distribution free of corporate taxes.
Singapore’s
Oldest and Best REIT Now on Sale Following Correction
Asian stocks
have been hit hard since the severe decline in mid-May, but Singapore has
declined the least. The benchmark Singapore Strait Times Composite now
trades 13% off its all-time high on May 3 and sells at 14.3 times trailing
earnings accompanied by a 2.8% dividend yield.
Listed in Singapore,
CapitalMall Trust is the city-state’s oldest REIT. Since its initial
public offering on July 17, 2002, CapitalMall Trust has gained a cumulative
132% in U.S. dollars, or 121% in Singapore dollars. Over the same period,
the Strait Times Composite has rallied 67% in U.S. dollars.
CapitalMall
Trust is literally Singapore’s REIT benchmark. The company was the
first REIT to become publicly-traded four years ago and holds a first-class
portfolio of shopping malls throughout the city-state.
Revenue is
mainly derived from rental income received from a diverse range of over
1,000 leases in five major shopping malls in both suburban and city areas.
Occupancy rates average over 98.5% for CapitalMall Trust, operating 60%
of its malls outside the core Orchard Road shopping district, where rents
are high compared to malls located in the suburbs. The scope for
raising rental income continues to grow outside the Orchard Road area,
a margin-booster for CapitalMalls Trust. That adds significant shareholder
value because during the Asian economic crisis in 1997-1998, Orchard Road
rental incomes plunged 50% while malls in the suburbs saw a much smaller
5% decline.
On July 21,
CapitalMall Trust reported another stellar earnings report. Net income
surged 29.2% in the second quarter versus Q2 2005 while the unit holders’
distributable income grew 26.1% versus a year earlier. Cash-flow
also improved, rising 14%.

As Singapore’s economy continues to
expand, the real estate market should also strengthen. But the extra kicker
for shareholders is a combination of rising distributions over the next
12-24 months and a rising Singapore dollar versus the U.S. dollar.
Currently, CapitalMalls Trust yields
an effective 5.18% in Singapore dollars - a strong currency not only in
Asia but also against the U.S. dollar. It’s no secret that the United
States and the European Union (EU) continue to put pressure on Asian countries
to revalue their cheap currencies - including Singapore. Along with
China and several other countries in the region, Singapore continues to
harbor an undervalued currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and the
euro. I expect the Singapore dollar to remain strong over the next
five years while the American dollar suffers another bear market against
most world currencies.
Rising Payout,
Fat Dividends
In 2006, CapitalMalls
Trust raised its annual distribution by 10.2% compared to 2005’s payout.
Based on the current share price, the company now pays S$0.11 cents per
share annually or 5.18%.
The average
dividend yield of Singapore-listed REITs is about 3% higher than the yield
on a 10-year Singapore government bond. In most developed markets,
that spread is just 1% - a bullish sign, implying Singapore REITs offer
a better buying opportunity than their expensive peers. And compared
to U.S. REITs, which now yield just 4.6%, CapitalMalls Trust pays a 13%
greater yield, denominated in a stronger currency supported by a healthy
national economy.
Plus, Moody’s
Investor Services recently assigned a corporate family rating to CapitalMalls
Trust, issuing the highest rating ever assigned to a Singapore-listed REIT.
CapitalMalls Trust’s rating reflects its strong leadership in Singapore’s
retail mall sector, its position as Singapore’s largest REIT and its impressive
recurring income backed with tenant diversification. In short, it’s
the bluest of the REIT blue-chips.
From its all-time
high in May of S$2.60, CapitalMalls Trust now trades at S$2.22 a share,
or 15% off its high. The REIT, along with the rest of the stock market,
has not been immune to the severe global sell-off since May. Buying
at this entry point makes long-term capital gains, income distributions
and currency appreciation an excellent buying opportunity in one of the
world’s fastest growing financial centers this decade.
Buy CapitalMalls
Trust (symbol CMT) at market on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Please
use the ISIN to place your trade in Singapore. The ISIN code is SG1M51904654.
Buy up to S$2.60.
To purchase
CapitalMalls Trust, investors can trade through International Assets Advisory
Corporation in the United States (1-800-432-4402). In Europe, members
can use Jyske Bank Private Banking in Denmark and Anglo-Irish Bank Austria
to trade Singapore stocks. To track your investment, go to the Singapore
Stock Exchange at www.ses.com.sg and click “REITs.”
| Eric Roseman is the Investment Director
for The Sovereign Society as well as founder and editor of Global Mutual
Fund Investor (GMFI), a monthly newsletter that highlights the world’s
best managed offshore funds. Visit www.globalmutualfundinvestor.com
Eric Roseman also founded The Sovereign Society’s investment trading service,
Commodity Trend Alert, in 2001. Eric’s weekly newsletter, Commodity Trend
Alert, focuses on the best global commodity plays worldwide. For more information,
visit www.commoditytrendalert.com |
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