..
NOW
is the time to invest in Australia’s East coast cities of Sydney, Melbourne
& Brisbane
By John
Faulkner
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April 2006
| As
a property investor, you like most are probably looking for excellent value
today as well as solid projected medium to long term growth.
Based in Sydney,
Australia, Home Port Property, is an independent real estate agent that
specialises in finding residential investment properties for international
clients that meet those criteria.
Real estate
markets are cyclical and at any point different areas are at different
stages in the cycle. At any one time some areas are better for property
investors than others. That is why Home Port Property, sources a
selection of residential investment stock from throughout the growth areas
in and around Australia and New Zealand that position clients to benefit
from market changes.
Ideally we
look to source property in a market that is just beginning their next upward
cycle. Whilst we suggest that property investment is for the long
term, and therefore historically your investment will go through a number
of property cycles, it is always preferable to be buying at the start of
a new cycle, rather than the peak of an existing one.
Currently we
are spending the majority of our time on the major Eastern capitals of
Australia. The markets that are currently just in the process of
beginning their next upward cycle are Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
For those considering
an investment in these locations this article covers the following topics:
• A brief property
market update
• The general
purchasing process for non resident investors who invest in Australia
• A sample
of some of the various projects that we currently have available in these
locations
Property
Market Update:
From our perspective
as real estate agents, operating daily within the market, we can say that
momentum has certainly picked up since the beginning of this year.
A significant amount of product has sold across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane
over this time. It is clear that investors are now returning to these
markets. This sort of momentum historically leads to price rises.
We regularly
update our investors with market news as well as property specific information.
Following is what some of the experts have had to say:
I was fortunate
enough to attend a lunch seminar in early March 06 in Brisbane and Michael
Matusik was presenting.
Michael’s company
“Matusik Property Insights” has been providing property research data for
many years. We have followed his projections over the last 10 years
and have found them to be spot on. As an independent researcher Michael
is respected and used by both individual investors, major developers &
bankers, his reports are consistently published by major media outlets
across Australia.
Michael spent
some time talking about the “Residential Property Clock”
As an investor
you are probably well aware of this clock. A clock where 9 indicates
the start of an upswing, 12 indicates the peak of the boom, 3 is the start
of the downswing and 6 is the market trough.
Michael suggests
(based on his current research) that Australia’s various capital cities
sit in the following sections of the Property Clock:
.
| Sydney: |
near
the bottom of the cycle |
| Melbourne: |
near the bottom
of the cycle |
| Brisbane: |
near
the bottom of the cycle |
| Hobart: |
near the bottom
of the cycle |
| Darwin: |
still climbing |
| Perth: |
near its peak |
| Adelaide: |
in the midst
of a downswing |
| Canberra: |
in the midst
of a downswing |
|
| The recently
released BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Index also confirms the position
of these capitals. |
| Sydney
& Brisbane had a 4.1% rise in their indices during the Dec 05 quarter,
Melbourne 3.8%, Perth 5.5%.
So all are
growing, though the suggestion is that Perth is near its peak, whilst Sydney,
Melbourne and Brisbane are only just beginning.
|
|
.
Michael’s
thoughts on interest rates are that they will stay fairly stable over the
next few years. Westpac (one of Australia’s major 4 banks) just released
a report suggesting that rates will fall by up to 0.75% next year.
Like Michael, our feeling is that rates are more likely to stay fairly
stable and perhaps drop slightly. Of course any rate drop will further
ignite the market and push prices up.
The above is
in line with recent reports from other commentators throughout Australia:
As reported
in Property Review Dec 2005:
HIA’s chief
economist Simon Tennent said the improvement in first home buyer numbers
appears to show the worst is over for this cycle, particularly given the
stable outlook for interest rates, unemployment, and house prices.
Further evidence
is that rents have continued their upward trend and vacancy rates are near
all time lows
J.P. Morgan’s
chief economist Stephen Walters said like the September (05) rise in home
loan approvals, the rise in October (05) was driven by higher borrowing
by both owner-occupiers and investors.
Previously,
owner-occupiers were the main driver as investors stayed clear.
"The second
straight rise in the value of loans to investors implies that investors
have edged back into the market.”
The Australian
Financial Review (one of Australia’s most respected financial publications),
11th January 2006 reports:
“Residential
rental property yields in 2006 will improve markedly as contracts are renegotiated
to reflect tightening vacancies, property analysts have predicted.
Vacancy rates are at the lowest for several years in most capital cities
due to pent-up demand and reduced house and apartment completions.”
“In Sydney,
vacancies have fallen from 4 per cent in December 2003 to 2.8 per cent
in September 2005; in Melbourne over the same period from 3.8 per cent
to 2.2 per cent; and in Brisbane from 2.5 per cent to 2 per cent.”
“ANZ Bank economist
Paul Bradick said the gap between underlying demand and supply of residential
property in most capital cities was widening, causing rental vacancies
to fall. He said fewer completions had dampened supply…”
The Residex
Report September 2005 reported:
“My best guess
is that by about June (06), supply issues (shortages of rental properties)
will start to generate significant numbers of stories about increasing
rentals and investors will start to return to the market. Until then
housing prices are likely to show a little further correction but no significant
gains. It is a market for those of us who are well informed and are
buyers positioning ourselves for the upswing that will come.”
So, let’s
have a look at some of the specific locations that are at the bottom of
the current property cycle. -
Article
Continued Below - |
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- Continued
From Above.
Melbourne
- Like Sydney the Melbourne market has been very flat, however, long
term it is a very solid market with strong underlying demand and a lack
of supply.
Following the
last four low points in Melbourne’s residential price growth (early 70’s,
early 80’s, early 90’s and 1995) the growth in the ensuing 6 years has
averaged 12%pa.
According to
the Residex September 2005 report:
• Last quarter
provided a more normal growth rate of 2.19%
• Sales activity
remains relatively strong and has only come off 34% since its peak (which
is less than in many other markets)
• Unit market
corrections appear to have passed the worst which was 6% for the quarter
ending January 2004
• The over
supply conditions are abating
Since this
report of Sept 05 there have been many reports confirming increasing rents
as vacancy rates fall. But we are still in the early stages of the
next upward cycle. We have had projects that completed and leased
around March 05, those projects now have 100% occupancy and waiting lists.
As rents are being renegotiated they are going up, on average by 10% plus.
Melbourne
Long Term Statistics – Last 10 year average
| Residex
Region |
Capital
Growth %pa |
Net Rental
Yield |
Total Return |
| Inner/North
West Units |
8.91% |
6.42% |
15.93% |
| North East
Units |
9.41% |
6.19% |
16.24% |
| South East
Units |
9.66% |
6.42% |
16.78% |
Source: The
Residex Report, September 2005
The signs are
evident that Melbourne will soon begin its next upward cycle. The
perfect time to invest in this market, especially with “off plan” projects
that have long completion times and initial rental guarantees.
Sydney -
The
Sydney market has been very tough for the last few years. As many
of our investors are aware, we have, for the last few years, chosen not
to list Sydney residential stock. The price points were, we believed,
too high and the returns too low. As it turns out we were correct.
But, the market is now turning and developers have adjusted their pricing
to meet the market. We now believe that it is time to return to this
market, which like Melbourne, as a longer term prospect will always be
extremely solid. As developers have adjusted their prices and as
the market begins to turn, we believe these prices will soon be adjusted
upwards once again. This plus the increasing rental yields suggest
that the time to re-look at Sydney is here.
“The numbers
are pointing to a situation where the bottom of the market has been passed
and, from here, one can reasonably expect that the typical Sydney property
will only increase in value. If you haven’t already got yourself
set in anticipation of the next growth cycle, then it’s time to do it or
miss out.”
Source: Residex
Newsletter, January 2006
Sydney at a
Glance - Where we’ve come from…
• We are currently
witnessing the longest period of sustained correction recorded (other than
in periods of serious economic distress)
• The correction
in the market commenced in December 2003
• The total
correction in values since December 2003 to date has been a modest 5.6%
Source: Residex
Report, September 2005
In a market
that has just undergone one of the longest “sustained correction periods”
a drop in values over this period of just 5.6% is not bad and is an indication
of the strength of the Sydney market.
Future Capital
Growth Predictions for Sydney Units
7% + p.a. next
5 years
7% + p.a.
next 8 years
Source: Residex
Report, September 2005
This growth
plus increasing rental yields will ensure Sydney is a very solid medium
to long term investment.
Sydney Market
summary
• The Real
Estate Institute reports that vacancy rates have reduced in the last two
years and are currently about 2.5%
• Our best
guess is that by this time next year is will be closer to 1% than 2%
Source: Residex
Report, September 2005
Like Melbourne,
we believe that now is the time to be entering the Sydney market.
But with projects that are well located and have a long completion period.
- Continues
on the next page - ..
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