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Since my days as a student, I’ve always liked reading on my bed. The fiction that I read on my bed during these two weeks was the novel “The Storyteller” by Mario Vargas Llosa. Mario Vargas Llosa may be characterized as my favourite Latin American author. Some folks reckon that he’s the most European Latin American author. After heaps of years in Africa, the South Pacific and Latin America, there aren’t heaps of German genes left in my body. Maria Vargas Llosa’s Europeanness is thus unlikely to explain my affinity for him. His worldview appears to be Thatcherite, in loads of respects. His Thatcherite perspectives are more likely to explain why I feel drawn to his literature. The novel “The Storyteller” revolves around a Peruvian writer who recognizes on a photo in an art gallery in Italy an old friend who lives with an Indian tribe in Amazonia. The story leads the reader from our modern world to mankind’s origin, reflected by the Indians in Amazonia. As usual, Maria Vargas Llosa doesn’t disappoint the reader. As usually, I try to maintain some balance in my life, and appear to succeed in it. I can no longer claim to be a workaholic. Since shifting into college teaching in the less developed world, I tend to work about eighteen hours a week. As a workaholic, you may make a pile of money a lot faster – through both work and investments. But the quality of you life does suffer. You may accuse me of being a little too selfish to cut that sort of deal. It’s a bunch more fun to make a bundle – again through work and investments – over your life on earth. Sussing out investments now falls into the category of fun for me. Moreover, after gaining a little experience in business and law all over the globe, I’ve gradually turned into a true blue contrarian instead of following the thundering herd. All this means
that my reading material during my break included stuff covering financial
markets and investments. As usual, it included Richard Russell, who – based
on a heap of practical experience – emphasizes stuff that you hardly hear
from your private banker or broker – e.g. the concept of compounding. To
quote Richard: “….this is the time to go against the crowd….the retail
public is deep in condos and deep in debt….it’s the time to go opposite
the retail public….this means building safe, liquid assets”. I’m almost
tempted to remark in rather colourful Spanish “A huevo”. Francois Sicart
– a partner in Toqueville Asset Management – puts it very well: “….experience
has taught me that, in times like this, it is better to be a cautious contrarian
than a bold trend follower”.
That rare African success story seems to continue. Because of climbing commodity prices and a mining friendly environment as well as an attractive investment climate, Botswana continues to attract foreign direct investment. Moreover, a few of the mineral explorers there appear to be turning into producers. The Australian outfit Gallery Gold produces gold in Botswana since last year. The outfit African Copper seems to start with its production rather sooner than later. All this implies to me that the less developed world does have a bunch more on offer than the established industralised world in terms of both lifestyle and investment opportunities. As far as investment opportunities are concerned, it appears to be curently a little difficult to locate meaningful opportunities. The explanation for the lack of meaningful investment opportunities may be that loads of liquidity is flooding the world. However, there’s a difference between liquidity that is earned and liquidity that is borrowed. Earned liquidity derives from savings. Borrowed liquidity derives from debt. The word debt comes originally from the word death. Debt means death. Apply that insight to the real estate bubble we’re experiencing almost at a global scale. Then just wait for the bubble to burst, sooner or later. It’s gonna have an unpleasant effects on folks who rely on liquidity derived from debt. Then may be the right time for folks who rely on liquidity derived from savings to join the party – when prices crater. To summarize all this in my usually cocky style: It may be wiser to be early and alone than being late and surrounded by the thundering herd. The following is a list of articles written by Jurgen for the magazine:
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Some
Thoughts On Living In Latin America ~ 