| Some Thoughts
On Real Estate And Energy |
| On Living
In Mexico |
| by Jurgen Klemann |
| September
2005
Colima,
Mexico
It’s no exaggeration
to claim that I’m a truly international citizen. I’m German. But I live
in Mexico after living in the United States, South Africa and New Zealand.
My stints in the United States and South Africa were rather short term
oriented. Since then my stints seem to be rather long term oriented. When
you get a little older and perhaps even more mature, your life stabilizes.
There’s now another hint about that stabilization thing. I’m getting increasingly
interested in real estate. |
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| It doesn’t
necessarily mean that I’m about to buy real estate. Even though the “what”
– the sort of real estate that manages to attract my interest – appears
to be more or less clear, regarding the “where” – the location – let’s
wait and see a little more how things are going to unfold.
Because I feel
rather disinclined to settle down in the developed world, my interest in
real estate there may be summarized as “more than limited”. Because
I feel a bunch more at ease in the less developed world, my growing interest
in real estate zeroes in on the less developed world. As far as I can get
a grip on the situation there, real estate prices in Malaysia, Indonesia
and the Philippines tend to be a lot lower than in the developed world.
But my interest in Asia may be described as a little limited.
Because I currently
reside in Mexico and feel very at ease there, the real estate market there
manages to attract most of my attention. As usual, my entire system is
opposed to following crowds. That’s the reason why property on the Pacific
Coast and the Maya Riviera doesn’t make me jump for joy. Because of
the property revival going on there, the thundering herd seems to have
arrived already, which always affects prices. |
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| I fortunately
reside a little off the beaten track. Property prices there appear to be
more civilized. However, I don’t wanna cackle before the eggs are laid.
Let’s wait and see a little more.
Of course there’s
a second – less personal – reason why I’m inclined to wait a little more
with property, no matter whether it’s in Colima or somewhere else. Everybody
with at least half a brain between his ears is aware of it. To quote
The Economist: ”Measured by the increase in asset values over
the past five years, the global housing boom is the biggest financial bubble
in history. The bigger the boom, the bigger the eventual bust”. In a nutshell,
yours truly is rather inclined to wait for the bust. Again, let’s wait
and see. When global property prices crater, it may be the right time to
join the party.
You may be
wondering why I’m starting to toy with the idea of acquiring property in
Colima. The reason is quite simple. |
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Offshore
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| When I
arrived in Colima a little more than four years ago I looked old and tired,
to quote Mexican friends of mine. Four years down the road, I’m probably
more healthy and at ease than I’ve ever been before. That’s arguably reason
enough to settle down properly in Colima.
On the other
hand, I don’t tend to mince words. About eighty percent of Colima’s population
are virtually aliens for me. However, that’s no reason for not considering
acquiring property here. It’s just crucial to keep a healthy distance from
the aliens. I’m quite good at it. All this means that yours truly can well
imagine doing something about property in Colima, in due course, when the
time is ripe.
In case you
look at purchasing property in the less developed world, and your emphasis
isn’t on riding into the sunset (settling down) there but on bargain
hunting, there are a few interesting options available. But they entail
a little risk. After trying to get a handle on the topic, I do have the
impression that there are some marvelous property bargains available in
some marvelous trouble spots. |
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| Peter Caroe,
a partner in the global real estate firm Knight Frank, who specializes
in Africa, notes that a four bedroom house with a swimming pool on a golf
course in Zimbabwe can be acquired for about US $36.000. Peter adds: “But
you’d have to be a brave man to buy now”.
A place a little
closer to my current home turf Mexico worth sussing out for property
bargains, in particular beachfront lots, is Haiti. But again, being a little
brave in this respect does no harm.
I can’t be
bothered to suss out property bargains in marvelous places like Haiti and
Zimbabwe. Property manages to attract my interest only as a spot to ride
into the sunset. My turbulent phase in life is hopefully over. That’s the
reason why a place like Colima sounds more appealing to me. But who knows?
There may be a few folks who feel like sussing out this sort of thing. |
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Offshore
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| Oil And
Gas In Mexico
While there’re
unlikely to be loads of folks interested in acquiring property in trouble
spots like Haiti and Zimbabwe, a few more folks may be aware that my current
stomping ground Mexico may be characterized as a significant oil and gas
producer. Capital expenditures by Mexico’s state owned oil company Pemex
are going north. Mexico intends to boost its oil and gas production a great
deal.
However, looking
at Mexico’s history with the aid of hindsight, there seems to be a pattern
of dramatic announcements while the follow up leaves a little to be desired.
As far as I can get a handle on the topic, it appears more realistic to
note that Mexico’s oil production has been rather constant since 1998.
At the same
time, Mexico continues to import natural gas from the United States. The
country’s strategy seems to focus on boosting domestic gas production for
the domestic market. In case that strategy is going to be successfully
executed, it will eliminate Mexico’s dependence on imports from the United
States. As a result, more crude oil may be exported.
Because I tend
to be a little opinionated, my approach to boost my current stomping ground’s
oil and gas production reflects my attitude to life in general. Just get
the state and the government out of that business. At the very least, put
together some joint ventures with the corporate sector. Even better, let
the oil and gas exploration as well as production be done entirely by the
corporate sector.
However, to
get the corporate sector involved in Mexico’s exploration and production
of oil and gas, it seems to be necessary to change the country’s constitution.
As far as I understand the situation rightly, organizing a majority for
that sort of thing appears to be rather slim. And slim seems to be out
of town.
All this indicates
to me that Mexico’s future in terms of oil and gas production looks a little
muddled. However, Matthew Simmons – an investment bank specializing in
energy investments – reckons that “Mexico will be a player in the Western
Hemisphere energy industry and bears watching with a closer eye than it
has historically been accorded”. I’m tempted to remark “let’s bloody hope
so”.
In a nutshell,
looking at both the property market off the beaten track and the energy
market in the Americas, I may currently be at the right place at the right
time. But once more, let’s bloody hope so….
The following
is a list of articles written by Jurgen for the magazine:
To contact Jurgen
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