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Some Thoughts On Financial Stuff
Art, Silver And The IMF
by Jurgen Klemann
April 2005

The week leading to Easter, Holy Week (in Spanish semana santa) boils down to a week of vacation/holiday in Mexico. All schools, colleges, universities are closed. I can’t claim to be awfully unhappy about it. Similar to Christmas, which I spent with friends of mine in Colima, I had no intention whatsoever of leaving Colima for semana santa. First, because I no longer yearn to keep moving around like a wandering circus. It rather looks as if yours truly has entered a calmer and quieter stage in life.

Second, because it’s no exaggeration to claim that spring in Colima deserves to be described as very pleasant.

The weather in spring tends to be very warm and sunny while the sky is bright blue. There’s usually no rain in spring at all. Watching the sunset on my roof terrace with the Sierra Madre de Occidental (a mountain range) in the background makes that season even more pleasant. During spring I’m regularly inclined to relocate some classes from the classroom to the lawn outside. The ambience on the lawn is a bunch more relaxed to spread my wisdom there.

Semana santa also tends to be one of the occasions when heaps of Mexicans feel drawn to the beach. When asking students every now and then what they’re going to do during semana santa, eight out of ten respond that they’re going to the beach. You’ll find them on beaches all over the place like Cancun, Acapulco, Manzanillo, Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta....Add to them in your imagination students from the United States who are on Mexican beaches for spring break, and you’re starting to understand why yours truly feels rather disinclined to join the crowd on the beach. That combination of alcohol, clubbing and sex before collapsing lost its appeal to me quite a while ago. The priorities of a junior elder in Colima look a little different to my priorities during my wild days in Africa.

Investment In Art

Since shifting into college teaching in the less developed world, my priorities have shifted to – among other things – sussing out emerging markets and investments off the beaten track. You’re aware by now of my increasing interest in the commodities market. The bull market for stuff that you can drop on your feet appears to be in full swing. However, one sector of that market hasn’t managed so far to attract a bunch of attention. It may be the right time to chat a little about it. I’m rambling about art investment, in particular art funds.

For quite a while, investment in fine art seemed to have been reserved for the extraordinarily affluent – e.g.oil honchos. About a year ago, Picasso’s “Garcon a la Pipe”sold for US $ 104,-- million, setting a new record at an art auction for an individual piece of art.

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This sort of money indicates that the art market is heating up again.

To attract the interest of folks who don’t have that sort of money available, various financial honchos have set up art funds. These art funds are run more or less along the lines of hedge funds, private equity funds and mutual funds.

In case you wonder what yours truly reckons about this sort of thing, I’m inclined to be a little sceptical. The reasons for my being reserved? First, the art market is characterised by high transaction costs and low transparency. That’s already reason enough for me to keep a healthy distance. Second, to quote my favourite financial column, which is Buttonwood on the website of The Economist:”....this market....is virtually unhedgable”. By the way, there’s a reason why I’m fond of reading Buttonwood. The author tends to display a healthy contrarian attitude and lived in some exotic places. She seems to tick a little like me.

Anyway, there’s another reason why my enthusiasm for this sort of thing deserves to be characterised as underwhelming.

Investors’ money in these funds is frequently locked up for about ten years, which means art funds with that sort of time frame don’t offer shiploads of flexibility, so to speak. We may put it like this. It’s comparatively easy to have cash available when loads of folks have cash available. But it’s more important to have cash available when heaps of folks are broke. In that situation you can buy bargains.

Mining In Mexico

After rambling a little about an investment theme that doesn’t give me a buzz, let’s continue with an investment theme that does give me a buzz. You’re aware that I’m getting more and more interested in investments in junior mining companies. One of the countries that tends to offer an attractive environment for mining is my current home turf, Mexico.

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Mexico deserves to be called one of the top notch countries in the world for exploring and mining silver. Mexico actually enjoys a five hundred year history in mining. My current home turf currently produces about one hundred million ounces of silver every year.

In the early 1990’s Mexico revamped its mining law. The purpose of the exercise has been to attract foreign direct investment in the mining sector. As far as yours truly can get a handle on the situation, that effort has been blessed with success. During that period virtually all government holdings in the Mexican mining sector were privatised. You can imagine what my opinion is about that sort of thing. One of my favourite quips by Ronald Reagan is:”We’re a nation that has a government, not the other way around”.

Even though I can’t claim to be an exploration geologist, it looks as if discoveries continue to be made. Just look at more or less recent discoveries, and you see what I’m rambling about. Completely new ore zones have been discovered – among others – in Concepcion del Oro (1996, 2001), Dolores (1996) and San Martin – Sabinas (1996). Completely new districts have been discovered – among others – in San Sebastian – Saladillo (1996) and Platosa (2001).

In a nutshell, Mexico still looks like fertile ground for investing in silver exploration.

Latin America And The IMF

Even though I don’t tend to read the Wall Street Journal, a while ago I stumbled across an article in the Wall Street Journal that’s worth chatting about. The article deals primarily with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its economic prescriptions for Latin America. According to that article, the IMF reckons that Latin America needs to strenghten financial regulation (including insulating central banks from political pressure) to improve economic growth.

Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in economics and was the World Bank’s chief economist in the late 1990’s retorts to these IMF proposals:”What a whitewash....the IMF was part of the problem”. When I read Joseph’s remarks I was wondering along the lines “what problem”. Eventually I found the answer in Fortune, which I usually don’t read either. According to what I read there, more than fifty percent of the less developed countries borrowing from the IMF between 1965 and 1995 were no better off than  when they started with the IMF. About thirty percent were worse off. Most of these countries were more indebted.

All this makes me wonder now whether the world really needs an outfit with that sort of underwhelming track record. Everybody may be better off if the IMF is going to be abolished. Now wait a second. I’m not saying that everybody is better off with the IMF abolished. I’m only saying may be. We better leave the issue open here.

On the other hand, the former German executive director for the World Bank, Fritz Fischer, has come up with a different idea. His idea boils down to merging the IMF and the World Bank. His main argument for a merger is that both Bretton Woods institutions provide financial resources to the same sort of clients, developing countries and countries in transition.
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However, yours truly tends to have a few serious doubts about that idea from my valued fellow countryman. First, the mandates of both outfits are completely different. While the World Bank focuses on fighting poverty by helping people help themselves, the IMF focuses on financial stability and sustainable economic growth. In a nutshell, the World Bank is a development organisation, the IMF ain’t. Second, while the World Bank is into long term projects, the IMF is into short term projects. That conflict of interest will almost certainly result in clashes after a merger. Third, the World Bank employs about ten thousand staff, the IMF about three thousand. A merger of that sort of magnitude will create a second Titanic, not a speed boat that can quickly change direction when necessary.

In my humble opinion, we better forget about merging the two Bretton Woods institutions. In case mankind really needs the IMF – which I’m not entirely convinced of – a few changes at that outfit may be worth mulling over. These changes may reduce the rate of unnecessary casulties in the less developed world.

The following is a list of articles written by Jurgen for the magazine:

To contact Jurgen Click Here

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