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Looking at all this in hindsight, I can’t claim to be awfully unhappy about how things have turned out. In private chats every now and then, I’m fond of rambling about “my wild days in Africa”. The term “my wild days in Africa” reflects my lifestyle there quite well. Whether a return to “my wild days in Africa” or a continuation of them would have been a wise idea, we better leave it open. The alternative that has gradually materialised appears to be more appropriate for a junior elder – a quiet and pleasant lifestyle in the boondocks of Latin America. However, there are other – less personal – reasons why I’m now more inclined to live in Latin America than in Africa. Whites In Africa All over Africa
there are a little less than five million whites living. Most of them live
in South Africa. They form there about ten percent of the country’s population.
There is also a significant white population in countries like Nambia,
Zimbabwe and Kenya. For most of them Africa is home. They were born there.
They’ve spent all their lives there. But for quite a few years already
the whites in Africa appear to be leaving the continent for good.
After working for a management consulting firm in Johannesburg and travelling extensively throughout Southern Africa, I reckon that I know my way around there. The longer my humble self watches the new South Africa the more it reminds me of Zimbabwe in the 1980s. I’m not saying that Mbeki resembles Mugabe. I’m not saying that South Africa is going to end up in the gutter next year like Zimbabwe. But there seems to be a pattern in Africa. After gaining independence Kenya ended up in the gutter. After gaining independence Zimbabwe ended up in the gutter. After gaining independence….Let’s wait and see. Let’s look at South Africa and Nambia in ten or fifteen years. Please don’t
get me wrong. I don’t want South Africa and other African countries to
go south. I’ve had a bunch of experiences in Africa that I’ll never forget.
That’s one reason why yours truly continues to keep an eye on the region.
Living in Cape Town or the Western Cape or Sandton still sounds very appealing.
Assuming just for the hell of it that the University of Cape Town or Stellenbosch
or Monash University campus South Africa were going to invite me to spread
my wisdom there, I don’t know what my reaction would be like. My life in
Colima tends to be very pleasant. Quite a few folks in Colima presumably
reckon that I’m a pain in the butt, which I sometimes enjoy being. Despite
all my sumpathy for Southern Africa it doesn’t take a rocket scientist
to understand why whites are leaving Africa for good.
Hernan Cortes must have gone through this experience as well when he arrived in the New World. When Hernan Cortes arrived in the West Indies and learned that he would get real estate if he committed himself to stay for five years, he responded: “Neither in this island nor in any other of this new world do I wish or mean to stay for so long”. However, years later on he became governor of New Spain, as Mexico was then called. As Rebecca West notes in her book “Survivors in Mexico”: “It was the kind of remark that sometimes leads to a marriage”. Please don’t get me wrong. My humble self isn’t saying that I’m going to get married. The last thing on earth I need at the moment is a sheila (New Zealand and Australian slang for woman) in my life. All I’m saying is that the first impression isn’t always right. And it makes sense to do a little more than just scratching the surface. Investment Themes It’s gradually emerging now that the next big investment theme is going to be commodities. Comparatively sophisticated observers have realised the upcoming wind of change a while ago already. A pot of money may be made not only in metals, but also in energy and agriculture/food. Energy and agriculture may offer opportunities to get a foot in the door in Latin America. My humble self has been rambling about it for a while already. However, I tend to be a contrarian by nature. To illustrate it with a simple example, a while ago Sam’s Club opened its doors in Colima. While half of Colima was staggering around there, I went to La Marina and Sears. Because Sam’s Club was entering the market in Colima, La Marina and Sears offered a bunch of discounts. While Sam’s Club was jam packed, I carefully picked a few bargains at La Marina and Sears. At that time, La Marina and Sears were peaceful and quiet, the perfect time to do some shopping. Not following
crowds appears to be the key to successful investing as well. The right
time to buy an investment is – you never guess – when nobody wants to have
it. Because my favourite reading material includes publications of a few
carefully selected contrarian investment advisors, I’m getting increasingly
interested in an investment theme that not a heap of folks are sussing
out, namely junior mining companies.
Africa must be something like a stronghold for mining operation. In particular South Africa and Ghana appear to offer environments that encourage exploring and producing minerals. However, it’s worth keeping an eye on Latin America as well. Chile and Peru may deserve to be called success stories in terms of implementing mining sector reforms. But countries like Bolivia and Mexico manage to increase their share in mining investment as well. It goes without saying that smoothly functioning capital markets are instrumental in financing exploration and mining projects. Take the stock exchanges in Toronto and Vancouver as examples, and you see what I’m rambling about. Developing capital markets has made some progress in Latin America. But there’s still a long way to go. Let’s wait and see how things are going to unfold. The following is a list of articles written by Jurgen for the magazine:
To contact
Jurgen Click Here
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Some
Thoughts On Living In Latin America ~ 