Moving and Shaking the Foreign Exchange Way
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Moving and Shaking the Foreign Exchange Way
Sometimes the foreign exchange market has all the excitement of a wet weekend in Detroit and sometimes there are smatterings of excitement in certain currencies. Right now though, there is so much movement in the currency market that traders barely dare blink and that, however odd it may seem, is very good news for anyone planning a move overseas. 

As I write, the US Dollar is at the weakest level that we have seen in 14 year against the British Pound, it is at the weakest level against the Euro since March 2005 and has weakened against 15 of the world’s 16 most widely traded currencies in the last week. Even the Japanese Yen, one of the world’s weakest currencies this year, has managed to push the US Dollar back to August levels and may well continue to advance as encouraging economic news continues to drip feed out of Japan. 

I guess this is less than good news if you are in the midst of a move from America to Europe, Japan, Australasia, the UK or practically anywhere but it is terrific news if you are moving to the US or buying an investment property in Florida for example.

Ironically,  the decline in the US housing market that has contributed to the fall in the US Dollar’s value; that and a drop in manufacturing and industrial output and the expectation that US interest rates have peaked and may well decline in the early part of 2007.

This forecast contrasts with the expectation that European interest rates are on the rise and should be a quarter of one percent higher as early as 7th December. The picture beyond the European Central Bank’s next meeting is less clear and the past few days have been awash with comments from ECB members and European Finance Ministers who clearly disagree on the best plan for EU interest rates and can’t even agree on whether things are all rosy in the EU garden or weathering a storm of downturn. I guess that is one of the problems with running 12 economies under one monetary regime. 

Now before you nod off or escape the humdrum of the foreign exchange market in order to read something hugely interesting about lifestyles or the latest crime thriller or romantic comedy title, this all does have a relevance to you and your cash. If you are migrating in any direction, the current market turmoil is of immense importance to you because the exchange rate you attain when you exchange your funds will determine how wealthy or how much you have to penny-pinch and save when you reach your destination.

A statement like that is usually met with a comment like 

“Well I can’t do anything about it yet; we haven’t sold the house”, or

“That’s all very interesting but I’ll just get the bank to send the money and I’ll get whatever the exchange rate is at the time” or worst still,

“I have a to-do list as long as the Great wall of China, I haven’t got time to worry about all that”.

These are all very valid points unless you have the right tools at your disposal. 

If you have to exchange your entire wealth into another currency, there can be no more important matter for you to address within your migration plans than the exchange rate.

At a time when people will switch credit cards and bank accounts for an extra 1 percent saved on the interest, it seems insane that anyone would allow the money markets to rob them of two, three four or even five percent of all their worldly wealth when this kind of cost can be easily avoided.  ‘Not having time’ can be very costly.

These costs vary dependent on where and when you convert your funds. Do the conversion through your  bank and the costs can be prohibitive. One off transfers of this magnitude can face dreadful exchange rates and unexpected transfer fees. 

Arrange the transaction through a specialist like Halo Financial and the fees will be minor; no more than £15 usually; and the exchange rate will be far nearer the rate that banks trade with each other. A three percent saving is not uncommon. So where you transact will have a direct effect on how much of your funds you keep.

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The ‘When’ issue is a much more interesting prospect and requires the expertise of a market specialist. We have all witnessed the spike in Sterling – against the US Dollar and that was reasonably well forecast in the financial markets. However, having hit $1.9550, this exchange rate immediately fell. 

This was an important level in that it represented the top of a trading channel which has remained intact since 1982.  You may or may not have known that but you would almost certainly not have heard that from your high street bank. 

Indeed, had you ventured into your high street bank and asked the expected top of the range, you would probably have met with a blank stare. Branch staff are not and don’t need to be trained to understand the intricacies of the currency market in order for them to dispense cash and travellers cheques. 

The exchange rates handed down to the branch staff are set by the banks’ traders and the branch staff have no reason to question or understand the background to the numbers printed on their tourist money screens.

What is certain is that when GBPUSD reached $1.95, no one would have received a call from their high street bank to let them know the news and that single piece of information could have been enough to save every one of their USD buyers hundreds or thousands of Pounds. And knowing that the market was rising could have saved their US Dollar sellers equally large amounts of cash.

This is where a specialist earns his keep and his client’s loyalty.   My clients use my services precisely because they get this kind of information flow and know the expected exchange rate fluctuations before the move takes place. It’s not a precise science you understand but forewarned is forearmed and as long as the risk of a decline in the value of your funds is managed properly, the days of ‘win some lose some’ become the days of ‘win some, do OK on the others’. 

And for anyone who is wondering how you get round the ‘Well I can’t do anything about it yet; we haven’t sold the house’ issue; the answer comes in the form of forward contracts. Seeing a fantastic exchange rate ebb away while your house buyers dither around over surveys, damp reports and legal matters is probably one of the most frustrating things I can imagine and yet it happens all the time. Your house buyers and their incessant questions are already a pain in the neck without them costing you money on the currency exchange rate as well.

The answer is to grab that great exchange rate while it is available, set a date in the future when you will exchange your funds and pay a small deposit to secure the contract until that date. 
This is definitely a win – win where you get the flexibility to negotiate your house sale and still get the extra currency for your money when the sale completes. 

You should try ‘win – win’ you’ll definitely like it. And if you are moving from the UK or Europe to the US, this is a win – win – win’ time with the most attractive exchange rates in…..well ages really.

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