| Sometimes
the foreign exchange market has all the excitement of a wet weekend
in Detroit and sometimes there are smatterings of excitement in certain
currencies. Right now though, there is so much movement in the currency
market that traders barely dare blink and that, however odd it may seem,
is very good news for anyone planning a move overseas.
As I write,
the US Dollar is at the weakest level that we have seen in 14 year against
the British Pound, it is at the weakest level against the Euro since March
2005 and has weakened against 15 of the world’s 16 most widely traded currencies
in the last week. Even the Japanese Yen, one of the world’s weakest currencies
this year, has managed to push the US Dollar back to August levels and
may well continue to advance as encouraging economic news continues to
drip feed out of Japan.
I guess this
is less than good news if you are in the midst of a move from America
to Europe, Japan, Australasia, the UK or practically anywhere but it
is terrific news if you are moving to the US or buying an investment property
in Florida for example. |
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Ironically,
the decline in the US housing market that has contributed to the fall
in the US Dollar’s value; that and a drop in manufacturing and industrial
output and the expectation that US interest rates have peaked and may well
decline in the early part of 2007.
This forecast
contrasts with the expectation that European interest rates are on the
rise and should be a quarter of one percent higher as early as 7th December.
The picture beyond the European Central Bank’s next meeting is less clear
and the past few days have been awash with comments from ECB members and
European Finance Ministers who clearly disagree on the best plan for EU
interest rates and can’t even agree on whether things are all rosy in the
EU garden or weathering a storm of downturn. I guess that is one of the
problems with running 12 economies under one monetary regime.
Now before
you nod off or escape the humdrum of the foreign exchange market in order
to read something hugely interesting about lifestyles or the latest crime
thriller or romantic comedy title, this all does have a relevance to you
and your cash. If you are migrating in any direction, the current market
turmoil is of immense importance to you because the exchange rate you attain
when you exchange your funds will determine how wealthy or how much you
have to penny-pinch and save when you reach your destination. |
| A statement
like that is usually met with a comment like
“Well I can’t do anything about
it yet; we haven’t sold the house”, or
“That’s all very interesting but
I’ll just get the bank to send the money and I’ll get whatever the exchange
rate is at the time” or worst still,
“I have a to-do list as long as
the Great wall of China, I haven’t got time to worry about all that”.
These are all very valid points unless
you have the right tools at your disposal.
If you have to exchange your entire
wealth into another currency, there can be no more important matter for
you to address within your migration plans than the exchange rate.
At a time when people will switch
credit cards and bank accounts for an extra 1 percent saved on the interest,
it seems insane that anyone would allow the money markets to rob them of
two, three four or even five percent of all their worldly wealth when this
kind of cost can be easily avoided. ‘Not having time’ can be very
costly.
These costs vary dependent
on where and when you convert your funds. Do the conversion through your
bank and the costs can be prohibitive. One off transfers of this magnitude
can face dreadful exchange rates and unexpected transfer fees.
Arrange the transaction through a
specialist like Halo Financial and the fees will be minor; no more than
£15 usually; and the exchange rate will be far nearer the rate that
banks trade with each other. A three percent saving is not uncommon. So
where you transact will have a direct effect on how much of your funds
you keep. |
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The
‘When’ issue is a much more interesting prospect and requires the expertise
of a market specialist. We have all witnessed the spike in Sterling – against
the US Dollar and that was reasonably well forecast in the financial markets.
However, having hit $1.9550, this exchange rate immediately fell.
This was
an important level in that it represented the top of a trading channel
which has remained intact since 1982. You may or may not have known
that but you would almost certainly not have heard that from your high
street bank.
Indeed, had
you ventured into your high street bank and asked the expected top of the
range, you would probably have met with a blank stare. Branch staff are
not and don’t need to be trained to understand the intricacies of the currency
market in order for them to dispense cash and travellers cheques.
The exchange
rates handed down to the branch staff are set by the banks’ traders
and the branch staff have no reason to question or understand the background
to the numbers printed on their tourist money screens. |
| What
is certain is that when GBPUSD reached $1.95, no one would have received
a call from their high street bank to let them know the news and that single
piece of information could have been enough to save every one of their
USD buyers hundreds or thousands of Pounds. And knowing that the market
was rising could have saved their US Dollar sellers equally large amounts
of cash.
This is where
a specialist earns his keep and his client’s loyalty. My clients
use my services precisely because they get this kind of information flow
and know the expected exchange rate fluctuations before the move takes
place. It’s not a precise science you understand but forewarned is forearmed
and as long as the risk of a decline in the value of your funds is managed
properly, the days of ‘win some lose some’ become the days of ‘win some,
do OK on the others’.
And for anyone
who is wondering how you get round the ‘Well I can’t do anything about
it yet; we haven’t sold the house’ issue; the answer comes in the
form of forward contracts. Seeing a fantastic exchange rate ebb away while
your house buyers dither around over surveys, damp reports and legal matters
is probably one of the most frustrating things I can imagine and yet it
happens all the time. Your house buyers and their incessant questions are
already a pain in the neck without them costing you money on the currency
exchange rate as well.
The answer
is to grab that great exchange rate while it is available, set a date in
the future when you will exchange your funds and pay a small deposit to
secure the contract until that date.
This is
definitely a win – win where you get the flexibility to negotiate your
house sale and still get the extra currency for your money when the sale
completes.
You should
try ‘win – win’ you’ll definitely like it. And if you are moving from the
UK or Europe to the US, this is a win – win – win’ time with the most attractive
exchange rates in…..well ages really. |
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