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Just
how much could GW Bush alter your migration plans?
By David
Johnson
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October 2006
| As
if moving to another country, changing your life and starting aging wasn’t
a momentous enough event, it is amazing how the words of a politician,
central banker or military leader can alter your financial situation during
this confusing process.
Global events
may even be the start of your migration plans. Many migrants move overseas
in order to benefit from changes in economic conditions elsewhere or to
escape the employment or financial constraints of their home country.
Even as I write, the argument is raging over whether those in Bulgaria
and Romania who want to improve their financial lot should be allowed into
Britain when these countries accede to EU membership in 2007. The rights
or wrongs of the argument don’t and can’t alter the desire that we all
feel to improve our circumstances but the same politicians who are doing
battle on this matter might also affect your own migration plans in less
obvious ways.
When it comes
to moving internationally, the exchange of your funds from one currency
to another, a matter which looks so very simple from the outside, will
be directly affected by the words of those politicians or the speech from
someone in authority in another country.
You see, the
currency market from whence your funds are derived, is directly influenced
by the words and deeds of political and financial figures who only get
reported in the depths of the financial pages; pages, by the way, which
you are well advised to avoid if you want to stay awake.
A central bank
which is in the throes of increasing the interest rate it offers on investments
will attract investors and strengthen the domestic currency, making it
more expensive for those who wish to buy it. A country which embarks on
a strategy of economic expansion through lower interest rates might find
that, for a short period, their currency is actually weaker due to the
lower interest rate yield but that will change when the economy starts
to heat up and interest rates begin to rise to ease consumer demand.
If GW Bush
decides to wage more war, retreat from a war zone or even remove himself
from office, the markets will interpret the consequences of his actions
for the US economy and the effect that this will have globally and then
either buy or sell their US Dollar holdings accordingly. However, the US
Dollar seems to be rather attractive at all stages of their economic cycle
and whatever is happening on the political front because of the sheer demand
from US consumers.
Knowing whether
the news is likely to strengthen a currency, weaken it, leave it on hold,
where the economy is within its cycle and where the currency markets are
likely to move to next, is the domain of the financial professional so
enlisting their help makes prefect sense. After all, you are already involved
in a momentous learning curve, understanding all the ins and outs of legal,
tax and visa requirements for your planned move; do you really want to
have to learn everything about the currency market as well?
And converting
your funds looks pretty simple because most people will just amass the
funds from the sale of their house, car and non-exportable possessions
and then ask their bank to send the money to their new country. Easy; nothing
complicated about that and the funds will be delivered in the new currency
as instructed. The bank will charge a small fee and you move on to your
new life.
But the small
fee is a bit of a red herring because the bank will also have made rather
a handsome profit from your funds and this comes in the form of a spread.
A spread is
the difference between the exchange rate offered by the bank to those who
are planning to sell them a currency and the exchange rate they will apply
to contracts where that same currency is being bought from them. As an
example, check the Tourist rates on the screen at your nearest bureau de
change or bank foreign exchange till when you are next there. The Sterling
– US Dollar exchange rate will show something like $1.80 on the ‘We sell
at’ side of the screen whilst the ‘We buy at’ side will show $2.03. That
gives the bank a profit of 10 percent on each US Dollar that they buy and
sell.
On cash transactions,
it could be argued that this is justifiable because cash is so expensive
to handle; security, counting, storing etc. all cost money and time and
the banks and bureaux will always be able to argue their costs force the
gap between the buy and sell prices apart. However, when it comes to an
international transfer, all the funds are moved electronically and the
only manpower issues are the checking and authorising of payments. You
would, therefore expect the exchange rate spread to be rather less dramatic
than the 10 percent on the tourist rate screens.
Assume nothing,
question everything, as James Patterson wrote; if you don’t ask the bank
what exchange rate you are getting, (and most people don’t), there is no
incentive for them to reduce their profit margin at all. In fact, even
if you ask the exchange rate, they may not tell you because in many cases,
the rate is set when the funds are released and not before. That might
be two or three days later and the market can move two or three percent
in even this short space of time.
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And, even
if you ask the exchange rate and your are privileged enough to be told
what it will be, is this a good time to be making that transfer? Unless
you have watched the exchange rate every moment of the day and night in
the last year, you are unlikely to know and the foreign exchange clerk
at your local bank branch has no reason to be trained to understand the
market that lies behind their clients’ transactions.
Might I suggest
an alternative which throws this whole arrangement on its head and offers
you the control that you should be entitled to. Speak with a currency specialist
like Halo Financial (no advertising intended of course). A good specialist
currency dealer should get to know what you want to achieve, the timescale
and schedule of the liquidation of your assets and the planned date for
your move. With this information in mind, your dealer should offer you
a sequence of options which will make your currency exchange much more
cost effective with little or no hassle.
One of the
key difference between a good client-focussed specialist and a bank is
that you will receive information about the movements in the currency market
that affect your money and help in timing your transactions so take advantage
of the best exchange rate on offer within the time you have available.
Mind you , the currency market operates 24 hours a day, six and a half
days a week, so the chance that the best exchange rate is going to occur
during your local trading hours is pretty limited.
No problem;
specialists in the currency market will offer you the chance to place an
order to achieve the exchange rate your would like whenever and wherever
that exchange rate is available. So, if you need to buy Euros with
your US Dollars and the EUR-USD exchange rate dives during far Eastern
trade but bounces back to the higher levels before America is open for
trade, you don’t need to miss that opportunity.
And what’s
more, if the best exchange rate appears but its appearance doesn’t happen
to coincide with dates that suit you for your transfers – and let’s be
serious, these things rarely happen in miraculous synchronisation – a good
foreign exchange specialist will offer you the chance to grab the best
exchange rate but delay the actual exchange of funds until a time that
suits you. This is known as a forward contract and we find that it is particularly
welcome amongst migrants because it allows you to maximise the gain you
make on currency rather than suffering whatever the exchange rate happens
to be on the day you have funds available to convert.
However, if
your funds are free, the exchange rate is fantastic and you need to get
money into your new account on the other side of the world, immediate transactions
(spot trades) can be undertaken within two working days and sometimes as
soon as the same working day dependent on the currencies involved.
So, if you
want to make sure neither GW Bush nor your bank costs you money when you
concert your funds for migration or any other purpose, speak with a specialist
currency dealer and save yourself some hassle, cost and complication.
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| David
Johnson is a foreign exchange consultant with Halo Financial Ltd helping
both private and corporate clients to simplify their currency dealings
and to achieve improved exchange rates through market insight. For further
information please contact +44 (0)20 7350 5474 or visit the website www.halofinancial.com |
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