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What do your money, central
banks and terrorist acts have in common?
By David
Johnson
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August 2006
| “When
it comes to currency, I would urge you to enlist the help of a specialist
unless of course you have a local bank where the staff are workaholic insomniacs
with foreign exchange market experience and a manager unhindered by profit
targets.”
What is a guy
to do? Planning a move between countries is convoluted enough without further
complications but it seems the central bankers and terrorists have plans
to make your life as nervous as possible. However you can thwart them.
The problems
that these two groups pose to the international migrant are that their
actions affect the value of your funds. I am well aware that terrorism
poses enough threats already without me identifying another one but the
variation in the value of your money could pose a significant threat to
the wealth you arrive with in your new home.
We saw the
complications that central bankers can bring when the Bank of England and
European Central Banks both hiked their base interest rates by 0.25% on
3rd August. The reasons given by each bank varied a little but the overwhelming
thrust was that their economies are growing, particularly in the consumer
sector and the Central Banks have to reduce the availability of cheap money
to temper demand and thus reduce inflation.
This is a perfectly
valid argument for each of them but the European Central Bank has slightly
less credibility in doing so when German manufacturing is struggling to
grow and the borrowing requirements of individual EU states are still out
of step with the ECB’s target levels.
The Bank of
England is coping with UK inflation at the top end of their Government
imposed 1-3% target. This is driven by a buoyant housing market, which
in turn creates confident consumers; these factors allied to relatively
strong economic growth do lend weight to their decision. However, what
amazed traders and analysts alike is the sudden change of heart that took
the Bank Of England’s monetary policy committee from a unanimous vote for
an unchanged interest rate in July to a majority vote for an interest rate
hike just one month later.
Whilst these
shenanigans were going on in Europe, the Federal Reserve, America’s central
bank, announced that it had reached the end of a two-year, seventeen step
interest rate raising cycle which took US interest rates from 1% all the
way up to 5.25%. Leaving their interest rates on hold created a lot of
nervousness amongst financial markets because traders were unsure whether
this was a pause or a complete change of heart and the exchange rate volatility
reflected this ambiguity.
And just when
the markets were truly unsettled, the British security services announced
that they had foiled a plot to blow up airborne transatlantic jets. The
fantastic news that the plot had been thwarted didn’t stop the dread that
people all over the world feel when these murderous insane plots are discussed.
Mention September 11th to a New Yorker or 7th July to a Londoner and the
same chill can be seen running down their spines.
Traders are
not immune to these feelings and their reaction to the potential for death
and destruction in the name of some radical misbelief was to scurry away
in search of a safe haven for their funds. Consequently, when the 10th
August plot was unveiled, the US Dollar actually gathered some strength
while the Pound was understandably not the flavour of the day.
All of this
is kind of academic I know but if you are migrating there is a direct relationship
between events like these and your funds. For those in the midst of a move
from America to London, for example, the direction of the Sterling – US
Dollar exchange rate over the last few months has been hugely expensive.
This rate has risen from $1.81 to over $1.91 in the space of just a few
weeks; a ten cent variation.
Now I know
a dime doesn’t sound like a lot of cash but when you lose a dime for every
Pound you buy, you are giving away more than 5 percent of your funds. To
scale that up, the average migration that we handle at Halo Financial equates
to approximately $300,000. 5 percent of this is (I’m sure you are way ahead
of me on this) $15,000. That’s enough to buy a small car in Britain and
certainly enough to make a difference to the deposit you will have available
for a home in the UK.
Obviously,
the opposite is true for you if you are planning to move from the UK to
the US; the recent changes in exchange rates have delivered a late summer
present of equal proportions and with cars being less expensive in the
US, $15,000 will be a welcome extra upon your arrival in the home of the
brave and the land of the free.
So the twin
facts that UK interest rates are on the rise and US interest rates have
ceased to rise for the time being have conspired to offer US bound migrants
a chance to capitalise on their good fortune and those with a move on the
cards to the UK with a dilemma; do you take the current exchange rate in
the belief that things can only get worse or do you wait in the hope that
the GBP-USD exchange rate will fall in your favour? - Article Continued
Below - |
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Article Continued From Above -
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Understandably,
the actions of the terrorist on British soil have unsettled the Pound and,
ironically the decline in the value of Sterling compared to the US Dollar
could well deliver the break that UK bound migrants need. It does seem
odd that there may be a silver lining in the dark clouds of international
terrorist activity but Americans coming to the UK may just make a financial
gain as a direct result of this lunacy.
However, all
of this is theoretical unless you can actually capture the exchange rate
when it is attractive and I know that this is a problem through high street
banks whether that high street is in Dorset, Dakota or The Dordogne.
High street banks are just not set up to offer the sort of facilities that
migrants need to capitalise on positive exchange rate movements or protect
themselves against negative ones.
For a start,
the branch staff have no need to understand the currency markets beyond
dispensing holiday cash. The question, “Is the Dollar going to get stronger?”
will not yield and explanation of the market forces at play or the technical
analysis of the Sterling – US Dollar exchange rate and, to be frank, why
should it? Branch staff are not trained in these matters because it isn’t
necessary for them to understand the currency market in the course of their
day to day jobs. A specialist currency Dealer is just that; a specialist.
For example,
Consultants at Halo Financial are all trained to understand and explain
the currency markets in layman’s terms and have access to live and relevant
market data to ensure they; and therefore their clients, know what is happening
when it is happening so you as a client can take advantage or protect yourself,
as circumstances dictate.
Secondly, few
banks offer the ability to book exchange rates in advance. Just because
the GBP-USD rate is terrific today does not mean that it will remain so
for the next three months while you finalise your house sale and move to
the US. Without the means to capture this exchange rate, you will need
to buy more tissues to mop up the tears while the rate ebbs away and your
final exchange rate is quoted several percentage points worse than today’s.
With a specialist like Halo Financial, you can secure a contract based
on today’s exchange rate but delay the actual exchange of funds until a
date in the future that meets your needs. These are known as Forward Contracts
and mean that, for the advance deposit payment of 10 percent of your funds,
you can secure an exchange rate for all of your money at a rate to suit
you and at a time that maximises the exchange rate you receive.
And thirdly,
bank branches are only open bank hours but the foreign exchange market
is a twenty four hour a day market which commences trading in the Far East
on Sunday evening (UK time) and finishes for the week on Friday evening
(UK) when the US markets close. It’s not quite 24/7, more like twenty four,
six and a half but what this means is that the very best exchange rate
for you may only be available in late New York trading while you are tucked
up in your pyjamas in England or perhaps the best exchange rate will occur
in Tokyo trading hours while both UK and US migrants are catching some
zzzzzz. Perhaps your bank branch would stay open for you to make sure you
get the exchange rate you want!
You can ask
but I dread to think of the language you might encounter in the answer.
Some specialist currency dealers will be able to offer you market tools
called ‘Limit Orders’. These are automated orders, monitored around the
globe and around the clock to ensure that if your ideal exchange rate is
available in any part of the market, you get what you need without losing
a wink of your beauty sleep.
At Halo Financial,
we find these to be a fantastic tool particularly for transatlantic migrants
and those moving between Europe and Australasia where the time zones are
disparate and the possibility to benefit from the trading hours the other
side of the world, where exchange rates can be far more volatile, are very
attractive.
So I guess
the moral of all this rambling is that whatever the central banks do and
however the terrorists try to disrupt out lives, with the aid of the right
information, the right tools and the right attitude, your move to a new
life abroad can be cost effective and less hassle than you perhaps perceived.
When it comes to currency though, I would urge you to enlist the help of
a specialist unless of course you have a local bank where the staff are
workaholic insomniacs with foreign exchange market experience and a manager
unhindered by profit targets.
So I guess
that is only a few of you then.
...
| David
Johnson is a foreign exchange consultant with Halo Financial Ltd helping
both private and corporate clients to simplify their currency dealings
and to achieve improved exchange rates through market insight. For further
information please contact +44 (0)20 7350 5474 or visit the website www.halofinancial.com |
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