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Last Minute Won't Do It
When It Comes to Currency Exchange
By David
Johnson
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June 2006
| Lastminute.com
is one of the few dotcom companies that actually made it through into the
new millennium. Their offer is fantastic and captures the spirit of the
age. Of course it is more romantic, more fun, cheaper and more exciting
to do the spontaneous thing and book your trip last minute. This capturing
of the millennium zeitgeist made Lastminute.com a household name and if
they are not in the dictionary now, I’m sure they will be soon. People
‘lastminute’ their tickets in the same way that they now ‘Google’ information
on the internet.
But, while ‘last minute’ plans are
great for holidays and flights, there are some things which, as tedious
as it sounds, are best arranged as far in advance as possible. You
might prefer to grab flights for a weekend away at the last minute but
probably wouldn’t drop everything on a trip to the Himalayas and start
to scale the west face of Everest in your deck shoes. Unless you have a
death wish, an undertaking on his scale requires plenty of forethought,
years of intricate planning, not to mention a decent pair boots. And forethought
and planning are what you must be well practised in during your planned
move to another country.
From the visa application to the
accommodation arrangements and from the packing and moving of your household
furniture to the arrangements for your pets, there is always something
else to add to your ‘to do’ list and in my experience, most migrants have
more than one ‘to do’ list as well. In fact a list of ‘To do’ lists might
come in handy.
When so many matters have to be considered
within the migration process, it is no wonder some things get left to the
last minute. One item that is often left to the last second or even left
off the list altogether is the small matter of converting your funds into
the currency of the country to which you are migrating. This is such a
major chance to save money if you plan the conversion early enough. Sadly,
because most migrants don’t have this fact highlighted to them early enough
in their plans, they leave the currency exchange until they are closing
their bank account in their home country and just instruct their bank to
move the funds en-mass to the new destination.
And banks are delighted when this
happens. It means that the last act of their departing client is to write
them a blank cheque. By instructing their bank to send their Sterling to
Australia or their Dollars to England, the client is effectively allowing
the bank to set their own exchange rate. If you are ever unfortunate enough
to be in this position, just watch the bank clerk very closely; you will
see Dollar signs appear in his eyes and hear the unmistakable sound of
a Las Vegas jackpot siren behind him; corks will be popped and streamers
released as the bank makes yet another killing..
And the reason for this euphoria
will be the fact that your funds will be converted at the ‘Rate for the
Day’; an exchange rate which approximates the rates tourists get for small
cash amounts and which conceals a huge profit margin. Unless customers
question the exchange rate, this is the rate that they will receive….or
suffer to be more precise. This will immediately secure a profit for the
bank of up to 4 percent and that profit is funded by you. I’ll leave you
to calculate the loss you would incur on your funds.
If you want to arrive in your chosen
country to start your new life with as much spending power as possible
and you really don’t want to make your bank any wealthier than it already
is, then all I can say is, take a moment early in your migration plans
to write ’Halo Financial – currency exchange’ on the top of your ‘to-do’
list.
Hopefully I can persuade you to think
about exchanging your funds in a way that benefits you rather than the
bank and you will be amazed at just how simple it can be to save money,
hassle and risk with the right assistance.
There are two major ways to get the
best of the currency market.
First it is best to buy your currency
as near to the level at which banks trade with other banks. This is, perhaps
unsurprisingly, called the ‘interbank’ rate and is as attractive as the
rate can get. Obviously banks trade with each other in very large volumes
so each transaction will usually be in excess of £10,000,000 ($18.5
million). It would be great to be able to get the same rates as banks agree
between themselves but realistically, as few migrants can boast eight digit
wealth, only the very wealthiest can expect to receive the interbank exchange
rate. However, a specialist currency dealer like Halo Financial will be
able to get you very close to this level and certainly far closer than
the bank’s ‘rate for the day’.
Secondly, and far more importantly,
timing your transaction effectively will reap fantastic benefits. The reason
for this is that the currency markets are hugely volatile and that volatility
creates excellent times to buy currencies and excellent times to sell.
The trick is in knowing which is which and that is where the expertise
of a currency specialist pays real dividends.
2006 is proving to be one of the
most volatile times for the currency markets in many years and the main
reason for this volatility is the expectation for the path of interest
rates in the US, Europe, Japan and the UK. However, whilst volatile prices
are loathed by share markets, currency markets thrive on the ups and downs
of the exchange rates. - Article Continued Below
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Article Continued From Above -
As
a trader who helps migrants every working day, my job becomes so much easier
when we see large spikes and troughs in the exchange rates. With the Sterling-US
Dollar exchange rate rallying from $1.72 to $1.90 as it did between March
and May 2006, those with Dollars to buy, had only to wait a few weeks before
getting 10.5% more Dollars for their Pounds. How many people do you know
who would prefer to receive $21,000 less when they arrive in the US?
The decline in the US Dollar had
been boosted by the expectation that US interest rates, having risen from
1 percent to 5.0% percent in less than two years, would finally stop rising
after the meeting of the Federal Reserve on 10th May. The head of the Federal
Reserve, Ben Bernanke, was pilloried for making a passing comment to a
reporter that said that the Fed may pause for thought at some stage. The
financial markets put two and two together and made seven as usual; assumed
he was talking about the immediate future and sold the US Dollar as though
their lives depended on it.
Mr Bernanke tried to calm the waters
by claiming that he was misinterpreted and that he had no timescale in
mind but the damage was already done and the Dollar found itself abandoned
and alone. However, currency traders are a fickle bunch and when
US inflation and retail sales showed more encouraging signs during the
June round of data, the US Dollar rallied; pushing the Pound back down
to $1.8350. Now traders are expecting an interest rate hike on 29th June
and the debate is raging over whether this will be the last or possibly
the penultimate rate hike before US interest rates stay on hold for a while.
This uncertainty is fuelling the volatility that has seen the GBP-USD exchange
rate move by two and three cents in a day.
Other currencies which have benefited
from the movements in the USD are the Yen, the Euro and the Pound. There
are other factors here though with the Eurozone economy picking up generally
and the German economy (30% of the total Eurozone) being the greatest driving
force in that equation. This may force the European Central Bank to break
the habit of a lifetime and move Europe’s base interest rate. They have
done so twice in the last year and the last move, which was quite unexpected,
served to strengthen the Euro across the board.
The UK economy has been delivering
a series of negative economic statistics in the last year but the prospects
for the British economy are picking up. The rise in the cost of factory
gate goods and an increase in retail activity in April and May were matched
by a sharp rise in housing sales and this has created further demand for
the Pound which is keeping the Sterling-US Dollar and Sterling- Euro exchange
rates at these higher levels.
All this has happened despite the
increasingly beleaguered state of the Labour government and this slew of
positive economic data is making the Bank of England think twice about
whether they should think about raising the UK base interest rate before
the end of 2006; a point that they reinforced in their press conference
on 10th May.
The wild cards in all these manoeuvrings
are the expectation of interest rate rises in Japan and a revaluation of
the Chinese Yuan but I would need another 6000 words to do justice to all
the influences in this equation.
So with so many factors to weigh
up, the only people who can possible hope to assess the effect that these
movements will have on your funds and to make sure you take advantage when
the exchange rate is in your favour, are the traders who sit and watch
exchange rates, data and charts all day. Thankfully, by using a specialist
currency company like Halo Financial, you can have access to just such
a group of people who’s role is to watch the markets on your behalf and
make sure that whether you need to buy or sell, when the market reaches
a level which benefits you, you are aware of it in time to take advantage.
And if the exchange rate is fantastic
but the timing is not good for you, you can book a forward exchange rate
for a date which suits you rather than miss out. Equally, if the exchange
rate is not in your favour but is expected to move in the right direction,
a specialist dealer can place an instruction in the market to buy your
currency at a predetermined exchange rate wherever and whenever that exchange
rate is available.
There are many ways to make the most
of your funds when moving them across borders but the most important things
to remember are to think about your plans early and speak to a specialist.
That way you can ensure you get the best of the rates on offer and you
don’t add your money to the next ‘record profit’ announcement by your bank.
.
| David
Johnson is a foreign exchange consultant with Halo Financial Ltd helping
both private and corporate clients to simplify their currency dealings
and to achieve improved exchange rates through market insight. For further
information please contact +44 (0)20 7350 5474 or visit the website www.halofinancial.com |
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